The Pandemic Led to 1,000,000 Fewer Undergraduate Students
Mostly, this decline happened at for-profit four year colleges, but also at public institutions and community colleges. These schools tend to enroll many more non-traditional students (over 24), the cohort with by far the sharpest decline in enrollment. Private, four-year colleges suffered the least attrition, at 2.2%. This is also at a time, however, when Common App is reporting a record number of applications.
So, when you disaggregate the data, what does this mean for 18 years looking at highly competitive private, four-year colleges? They are more competitive than ever. Fewer middle and working class adults are going back to school in the public sector, which drags down the overall “College Enrollment” numbers, and working and middle class high school graduates are enrolling at lower rates.
So, where are all of Common App’s applications coming from? Fewer students are applying to more schools, mostly the prestigious four-year institutions. The private four-year colleges (and the vast majority of competitive big state schools) are filling all their seats, selecting from far more applications–even though the overall number of applicants is down.
Meaning, the competition at competitive schools is increasing while enrollment at less competitive schools is decreasing. The Ivy Leagues have never been more competitive! This is why competitive schools can lean into Early Decision and other incentives: They have more than enough applicants who can afford to go there, making Financial Aid and other factors for families who make less than $250,000 a year even more difficult.
Storyboards College Admission Portfolios, LLC